Why Ferrari Could Be the Team to Beat at the Monaco GP

Ferrari has not exactly looked like the obvious team to beat this season, but Monaco is one of those races where the usual form guide does not always tell the full story.

That is why this weekend feels so interesting. On most circuits, Ferrari’s problems are pretty easy to see. The car does not seem to have the same punch in a straight line as Mercedes, and when you are giving away time on the straights, it is hard to fight consistently at the front.

But Monaco is not most circuits.

This is not a race won by the car with the biggest engine or the highest top speed. It is won by the car that gives the driver confidence. It is won in the braking zones, through the slow corners, over the bumps, and in the way the car lets the driver get close to the walls without feeling like it is about to bite.

And that is where Ferrari might have something.

The interesting thing from the recent races is that Ferrari has looked much stronger in slower corners than it has on the straights. In Canada, the car was reportedly more than two tenths quicker than the rest of the field in the slow speed sections, while losing time once the cars were flat out.

At a normal track, that is a frustrating balance. At Monaco, it might be exactly what Ferrari needs.

Why Monaco Changes Everything

Monaco is awkward, tight and old fashioned, and that is exactly why it still matters. It does not give the teams the same kind of test they get at most modern circuits. There are no long, forgiving run offs. There is no easy way to recover from a bad qualifying. There is barely any room to overtake.

Everything is about putting the car in the right place at the right time.

That suits a car with strong low speed grip. You need the front end to bite at Sainte Dévote. You need the car to rotate through the hairpin. You need traction out of Portier. You need enough confidence to attack the Swimming Pool without second guessing yourself.

If Ferrari’s strength really is in that low speed range, then Monaco gives the team a genuine opening.

It does not mean the Ferrari suddenly becomes the best car on the grid everywhere. It just means the car might be very good at the exact things Monaco asks for.

That is the whole point.

Ferrari’s Weakness May Not Hurt Them Here

At most tracks, Ferrari’s straight line weakness would be a real problem. If you are losing time when the car is flat out, you usually spend the rest of the lap trying to claw that time back. Sometimes you can. Often you cannot.

Monaco makes that less damaging.

There is the tunnel, of course, and traction out of corners still matters, but this is not a circuit where the fastest car in a straight line automatically looks strongest. The lap is too slow, too broken up and too technical for that.

That is why Ferrari can afford to be a little weaker in one area if it is genuinely strong in another. If the car works through the slow corners, if it rotates well and gives the drivers confidence, then the lack of outright top speed might not be the thing that defines the weekend.

For once, Ferrari’s car profile might actually fit the circuit.

Hamilton’s Biggest Ferrari Chance Yet

For Lewis Hamilton, this could be one of his best chances yet to win in Ferrari colours.

A first Ferrari win would be huge no matter where it happens, but Monaco would give it a completely different kind of weight. Hamilton has been around this place long enough to know that you do not win here by overdriving. You build the weekend. You find the rhythm. You trust the car a little more each lap.

If the Ferrari gives him that trust, he will be dangerous.

The big question is whether he can get comfortable early. Monaco is not a circuit where you want to spend all weekend chasing the setup. You need to arrive at qualifying with the car underneath you, because Saturday is usually where the race is decided.

If Hamilton is on the front row, he is absolutely in the fight.

Leclerc Has History With Monaco

Then there is Charles Leclerc.

Monaco always feels different for him. It is his home race, and you can sense every year that the pressure sits a little heavier. He is quick here, everyone knows that. But Monaco has a way of turning even the best weekends into chaos.

That is why this one feels so important.

If Ferrari turns up with a car that suits the track, Leclerc has to be one of the favourites. He is one of the best one lap drivers in Formula 1, and Monaco is still the place where one lap can shape the whole weekend.

A Leclerc win at home in a Ferrari would be massive. Not just for him, but for the team.

And if Ferrari somehow ends up with Hamilton and Leclerc both starting at the front, then it becomes one of the biggest stories of the season.

McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull Will Still Be Dangerous

None of this means Ferrari is going to walk away with it.

Mercedes has been strong, and even if Monaco does not reward its strengths as much as other circuits, it will still be a threat. McLaren could easily be right there too, especially if it has good tyre warm up and strong balance through the middle of the lap.

And Red Bull can never really be counted out, especially with Max Verstappen. Monaco is the kind of place where a driver can still make something happen even if the car is not perfect.

So Ferrari is not guaranteed anything.

But for once, the shape of the circuit seems to work in its favour rather than against it.

Strategy Still Has to Be Perfect

The car might be suited to Monaco, but Ferrari still has to get the weekend right.

That is the part nobody can ignore.

There is no point having a fast car if the qualifying plan gets messy. There is no point having great slow speed performance if one driver gets stuck in traffic on the final run. There is no point being quick if the strategy turns into confusion on Sunday.

Monaco rewards calm weekends.

Ferrari needs to keep it simple. Get the drivers comfortable in practice. Make sure the tyres are ready in qualifying. Avoid traffic. Nail the pit stops. Do not overthink the race.

That sounds obvious, but Monaco makes obvious things difficult.

Why the Bookmakers Are Paying Attention

The reason this Ferrari talk feels believable is that it is not just based on blind hope.

The car’s strength seems to line up with the circuit. Monaco rewards the exact areas where Ferrari has looked more convincing, and it hides the areas where Ferrari has looked weaker.

That is why people are starting to look at the team differently for this weekend. It is not because Ferrari has suddenly become the best car everywhere. It is because this might be one of the few tracks where the team’s current package makes the most sense.

On a normal circuit, the straight line deficit is hard to ignore. At Monaco, the slow speed advantage could matter more.

Could Ferrari Really Dominate Monaco?

Dominate might be too strong, because Monaco rarely works like that. Even when a car is quick, the race can still be messy. Traffic, safety cars, pit timing, qualifying mistakes and red flags can all change the picture.

But can Ferrari win? Yes.

This feels like a proper chance. Not a romantic chance. Not just a “maybe something crazy happens” chance. A proper chance.

Ferrari does not need to fix everything overnight. It does not need to suddenly find a huge amount of straight line speed. It just needs the car to be strong where Monaco demands it most.

Slow corners. Traction. Balance. Confidence.

If those pieces are there, Hamilton and Leclerc have a real chance.